chp1: green movement on the back foot

2 files changed, 69 insertions, 11 deletions

diff --git a/bibliography.bib b/bibliography.bib
index 5ecfec5..40d65ba 100644
--- a/bibliography.bib
+++ b/bibliography.bib
@@ -1,3 +1,60 @@
+@report{living-planet,
+    title={Living Planet Report 2024},
+    date={2024},
+    author={{WWF}},
+    subtitle={A System In Peril},
+    address={Gland},
+    publisher={{WWF}},
+}
+
+@misc{noaa-co2,
+    title={Trends in globally-averaged CO2 determined from NOAA Global Monitoring Laboratory measurements},
+    author={Lan, X. and Tans, P. and Thoning, K. W.},
+    urldate={2026-07-25},
+    doi={10.15138/9N0H-ZH07}
+    date={2026-07-06},
+}
+
+@misc{unfao-fish-stocks,
+    title={SDG Indicators},
+    author={{Food and Agriculture Organisation of the United Nations}},
+    note={14.4.1, Proportion of fish stocks within biologically sustainable levels},
+    date={2026},
+    url={https://www.fao.org/faostat/en/#data/SDGB},
+    urldate={2026-07-25},
+}
+
+@report{breaking-plastic-wave,
+    author={{Pew Charitable Trusts} and {SYSTEMIQ}},
+    title={Breaking the Wave},
+    subtitle={A Comprehensive Assessment of Pathways Towards Stopping Ocean Plastic Pollution},
+    date={2020},
+}
+
+@report{energy-inst-2025,
+    author={{Energy Institute}},
+    title={Statistical Review of World Energy},
+    date={2025},
+}
+
+@book{smil-2017,
+    author={Smil, Vaclav},
+    publisher={Praeger},
+    title={Energy Transitions},
+    subtitle={Global and National Perspectives},
+    date={2017},
+    address={Santa Barbara},
+}
+
+@misc{owid-fossil-fuels,
+    title={Fossil Fuels},
+    author={{Our World In Data}},
+    note={Statistical Review of World Energy, Energy Institute (2025), Smil (2017) with major processing from Our World In Data},
+    date={2022-10},
+    urldate={2026-07-25},
+    url={https://ourworldindata.org/fossil-fuels},
+}
+
 @book{working-class-env,
     author={Bell, Karen},
     title={Working-Class Environmentalism},
diff --git a/chapter1.md b/chapter1.md
index 9a8aab8..b27667b 100644
--- a/chapter1.md
+++ b/chapter1.md
@@ -8,16 +8,18 @@ reserves, in the last thirty years, most of the key social-scale demands of the
 green movement have not been met, and even some of those earlier successes have
 been partially rolled back.
 
-- Tropical deforestation is accelerating
-- Plastic pollution is increasing at an accelerating rate
-- Public infrastructure is more, not less, car-dependent
-- Overfishing is intensifying
-- Green New Deal is nowhere to be seen
-- Water pollution has gone backwards (in the UK at least)
-- Energy transition shows few signs of starting (though consider obvious
-  objections: falling coal consumption in China, increasing renewable energy
-  production, car electrification)
-- Greenhouse gas emissions are increasing at an accelerating rate
+Human beings have burned more coal since 1987 than they did from 1800 until
+1987, and more oil and gas since the Kyoto Protocol was signed in 1993 than
+between 1800 and that time [@owid-fossil-fuels; @energy-inst-2025; @smil-2017].
+Once upon a time, environmental campaigners declared that 400 parts of carbon
+dioxide per million in the atmosphere ought to be an uncrossable red line: last
+year, the figure ticked steadily up past 428 [@noaa-co2]. Without changes to
+government policies, plastic pollution is set to triple between 2020 and 2040
+[@breaking-plastic-wave]. Since 1974, the proportion of the world's fish stocks
+deemed by the UN Food and Agriculture Organisation to be within sustainable
+levels has fallen from 90% to 62% [@unfao-fish-stocks]. The Living Planet Index,
+the WWF's measure of wildlife populations, has declined by almost three quarters
+since 1970 [@living-planet].
 
 All these failures beg the question: why aren't the green movement's strategies
 working? \[EXAMPLE OF GREEN LEADER ASKING THIS QUESTION\] In particular, I want
@@ -476,7 +478,6 @@ catastrophic language is counter-productive in this context.
 ## TODO
 
 - Find quotes and page numbers in @{back-to-nature} and @{heat}
-- Explore and evidence: the green movement is on the back foot
 - Find examples of 'listen to the scientists' and 'science denial' discourses
 - Find an example: green rhetor doing some soul-searching
 - Explore: magical green proposals