From d7f570d975fbb17f8dc3619a8bba0053387e387c Mon Sep 17 00:00:00 2001 From: Joe Carstairs Date: Thu, 16 Apr 2026 10:48:08 +0100 Subject: reading log: climate, history and the modern world by hh lamb --- reading-log.md | 61 ++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++ 1 file changed, 61 insertions(+) (limited to 'reading-log.md') diff --git a/reading-log.md b/reading-log.md index f6a9fee..af76748 100644 --- a/reading-log.md +++ b/reading-log.md @@ -6,6 +6,67 @@ author: Joe Carstairs ## 2026-04-16 +### @{climate-history-modern-world-v2} + +The big idea: the climate has not been stable in human history, it has been +erratic, and this has had a big impact on human history. It is likely to +continue having a big impact on us, and so we should strive to understand +climate much better, so we can forecast how it will change in the future and act +rationally to prepare for it. + +I found it utterly fascinating. Somehow it took the edge out of climate +apocalypse, knowing that humans have lived with a constantly changing climate +since forever. The climate change we face now seems less of the utterly unique – +apocalyptic? – challenge it is typically portrayed, and more like just one more +of humanity's endless train of difficulties. We've done it before, we can do it +again...? However, I do wonder if the climate forecasting has become much more +mature since he wrote, and anthropogenic climate change is in fact likely to be +much more extreme than historic natural changes in the climate. + +I also found his analysis shallow and scientistic. His narrative suggests that +the modern world is, and should be, run by scientific knowledge. If we can only +acquire the scientific knowledge, and get it in the hands of decision-makers, +they will make rational decisions and things will turn out more or less in a +sensible and efficient manner. There is no notion that political systems are +systematically incapable of behaving sensibly, nor that human relationship with +nature is fundamentally broken. + +In his view, we currently have several major climate forecasts on different +timescales: a natural warming on a scale of centuries which started about 1700, +a natural cooling on a scale of decades which started about 1900, an impending +ice age which may strike any time in the next one or two thousand years, and a +warming caused by industrial atmospheric pollution. These temperature changes +have unpredictable knock-on effects on wind and rain, including extreme weather +events such as droughts, hurricanes and monsoons. + +In his view, current (first ed. 1982, present second ed. 1995) forecasts of +human-caused global warming are exaggerated beyond the evidence. It is clear +that human pollution will have some significant impact on the climate, but it's +not currently known whether this will compare much in scale with natural +variation. He suspects that even with modern technology, human powers pale in +comparison to the power of nature. + +We must know more! Climate change has big impacts, and we don't adequately +understand how it changes, whether naturally or by human intervention. + +His main concern is food security, particularly in the light of growing global +populations, in his view, the most significant challenge the human race faces +over the next century. His history focuses on crops, and so does his future. He +tells the story of how in the 1950s, a new breed of wheat, Heines VII, within +years of its invention represented 80% of the wheat crop in the Netherlands due +to its resistance to yellow rust disease. In 1956, a new strain of yellow rust +emerged, and two-thirds of the winter wheat harvest was lost. We need genetic +diversity, and likewise, we need resilience, flexibility, and safety margins in +our food, population, agriculture, and energy policies. + +He describes how the climate of the twentieth century has been in flux in +complex ways, not simply getting warmer, and getting significantly cooler +1940-80. No known factor, including industrial CO2, can explain the timing of +the changes, including the general warming from c. 1700. We can't presently know +whether the present warm spell will continue or end in a sudden cooling, as +occurred after the balmy year of 1540 was succeeded by the coldest period of the +Little Ice Age. + ## 2026-04-15 ### @{net-zero} -- cgit v1.2.3